Outlook for the UKCS in 2007

Oil Production

Production of oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) fell by 10% in 2006 to 584 million barrels or 1.6 million barrels per day, significantly less than forecast. A fifth of the shortfall was because of the delayed start of several new developments after bad weather, strikes by divers and rig delays; some came on-stream early in 2007, while others have still to start production. However, most of the shortfall can be attributed to lower than expected reservoir performance in existing fields, despite the increased investment seen in 2005-6.

Figure 28 illustrates that the long-awaited improvement in the rate of decline should take effect in 2007-8 with the sizeable Buzzard field and up to 40 other new developments coming on-stream. Although oil demand marginally exceeded indigenous production in 2006 for the first time since 1980, the UK is expected to return to self-sufficiency in 2007-8 and still provide 90% of its needs in 2010.

Figure 28: UKCS Oil Production Forecast 2004-2010